Saturday, October 25th, marks the beginning of the “super-region” era in Division I racing. In previous years, the cross country postseason featured a district week that allowed only certain teams to advance to regionals. However, in Division I, that week has been eliminated, with all teams now competing in a single regional race. With this change come new qualification standards: the top seven teams in the region advance to the state meet, and the top 14 finishers who did not qualify with their team advance individually. With a wider range of qualifiers and a deeper field of teams and individuals, this regional meet will certainly be a spectacle.

Predicted Top Five Individual Finishers: Mick Temple, Anton Shishlo, Brock Jarrett, Kole Hyer, Lincoln Kelly

Predicted Team Qualifiers: Westerville North, Dublin Jerome, Hilliard Darby, Thomas Worthington, Olentangy Berlin, Olentangy Orange, Westerville Central

After back-to-back years of tight battles for the top spot in the region, it’s clear who will come home with the regional title this year. Pickerington North’s Mick Temple, who recently committed to the nationally ranked Butler Bulldogs, has been on a tear. He’s yet to lose a race this season, boasting an impressive résumé that includes a 14:44 5K PR and multiple head-to-head wins over Max Friedrich, the state’s fastest runner by personal best. Expect Temple to take the race out hard and never look back, likely making a push for a course record.

After Temple, the field gets incredibly murky. Hilliard Bradley’s Anton Shishlo looks like the best bet for runner-up as the only other athlete in the region with a legitimate 15:20s performance. From there, it’s anyone’s race. Competitors like Hilliard Darby’s Kole Hyer, Dublin Jerome’s Lincoln Kelly, Lancaster’s Brock Jarrett, Olentangy Liberty’s Gordon Kimberly, and Westerville North’s Casey Carlos all stand out as potential top-five finishers and All-Ohio contenders.

The next wave of runners features a mix of familiar faces and breakout stars. Ethan Ishida, Graham Tyler, Vansh Sethi, Austin Benedict, and Logan Behm are established names in the region, while Holden Gray, Rishi Jha, Cowen Allender, Calvin Watson, and Alex Hohman have emerged as rising talents this season. Any of these runners have the upside to crack the top ten.

Other notable runners with state aspirations include Ben Canales, Sid Sivakumar, Owen Klein, Liam Irvin, Aidan Green, Hayden McComb, Sahil Khandari, Dominic Mercurio, Corbin Morrissey, Pierce Lott, Christian Passerini, Willis Guard-Batchelder, and Mayson Talley. While they may not be top-ten threats, their performances will have a major impact on their teams’ overall standings.

With the key individuals identified, it’s time to shift focus to the team race. This is undoubtedly one of the most difficult years to predict which teams will advance to the state meet. While the region may lack the high-end front-runners of previous seasons, it makes up for it with exceptional depth, featuring as many as ten legitimate state-contending squads. Those teams include Westerville North, Dublin Jerome, Delaware Hayes, Hilliard Darby, Thomas Worthington, Olentangy Berlin, Olentangy Orange, New Albany, Lancaster, and Westerville Central. Teams like Worthington Kilbourne, Dublin Coffman, Gahanna Lincoln, and Pickerington North remain competitive but seem just short of state contention.

Last year, I had a data-based system to predict qualifiers, but with the expanded field of team and individual berths, that approach has been mostly thrown out the window. This year, I’m going on my gut feel. The first and easiest pick is Westerville North as the regional champion. The Warriors have been a revelation this season, turning previously under-the-radar runners into state-caliber competitors. Casey Carlos, the lone returning member of last year’s “Fantastic Four,” has continued his ascent, recently claiming his first conference title. New faces Holden Gray (15:34 PR) and Khaled Ghulid (15:59 PR) have provided a massive boost, while Charlie Bosler and Gregory Kerns round out a well-balanced top five.

Outside of North, Dublin Jerome, Hilliard Darby, and Thomas Worthington all look like near-locks for qualification, barring disaster. Jerome entered the season as the regional favorite but hasn’t yet lived up to that hype after falling short of a conference title last week. Still, they appear ready to peak when it matters most. Out of their dynamic trio, Lincoln Kelly already had his breakout at conferences, and Graham Tyler and Ethan Ishida are primed to follow. With several runners in the 16:20–16:40 range after those three, Jerome’s depth remains a huge advantage.

Both Darby and Thomas Worthington have enjoyed breakout seasons, putting everything together at the right time. Darby, which has never been a major regional force, has surged behind the leadership of Kole Hyer and Logan Behm, who guided the team to an upset win at the OCC Cardinal Championship. Venny Kurapati, Cameron Burke, and Aidan Fisher have stepped up as consistent scorers, giving the Panthers a reliable top five.

For Thomas Worthington, it feels like a return to the late 2010s glory days. Once a perennial powerhouse during the era of the Jha brothers, the Cardinals are seeking to revive that tradition behind Rishi Jha and freshman standout Calvin Watson, who own PRs of 15:38 and 15:40, respectively. They’re supported by Wesley Nash, Fraser Kirk, Riley Greco, and Owen Cunningham, with three of those four returning next year—making this both a strong present and a promising future squad.

Olentangy Berlin also looks poised to punch its ticket to states. Vansh Sethi is a strong low stick, supported by a rapidly improving young group. Christian Passerini has been a capable No. 2, though his consistency will be key to Berlin’s ceiling. Their transformation into a near-lock comes from the emergence of James O’Keefe and the freshman twins Micah and Mason Ballinger. O’Keefe was a revelation at conferences, dropping his PR from 16:55 to 16:05, while the Ballingers rank just behind Watson among regional freshmen, a huge sign for the program’s future.

After those five, the state picture gets far less certain. My final two projected qualifiers are Olentangy Orange and Westerville Central. Orange looked like a team that might struggle with depth entering the season, but their returning trio of Cowen Allender, Sid Sivakumar, and Sahil Khandari has found the right support from Adam Ellison and Jackson McKinney to create a complete lineup. Coach Walters’ ability to develop and balance this team continues to show.

My most uncertain pick is Westerville Central, which has never qualified for the state meet in school history. Then again, they had also never won a conference title until two weeks ago, and that victory might be the spark they need. With Alex Hohman and Corbin Morrissey running at state-qualifying levels, they just need enough from their 3–5 runners. The return of Andrew Gould (4:22 1600m) from injury gives them a timely boost, and if he continues to progress and their 4th and 5th runners Matt Nieman and Gage Turpin remain consistent, the Warhawks have a legitimate shot at making history.

Delaware Hayes, New Albany, and Lancaster all have strong cases to make states, even if I left them off my final list. Hayes stunned the region at the McGowan Invitational, where their team performance put them third on paper. However, concerns about that course’s legitimacy linger, and their recent results haven’t backed up those times, most notably at conferences, where they were barely able to edge Big Walnut.

New Albany boasts a well-rounded top five led by Austin Benedict, but depth remains a concern. After an off day from one varsity scorer, they fell short of Westerville Central at conferences, and their sixth and seventh runners have yet to break 17:00—a potential issue at a large-field meet. Lancaster, meanwhile, also benefited from McGowan’s likely short course. Their second and third runners have struggled to replicate those times, though strong showings at conferences from Brayden Wheeler and Charlie Cooperrider suggest the Gales could still be in the mix.

I’m extremely excited to see how this regional meet plays out. Some key storylines to watch: Will Dublin Jerome prove they’re peaking at the right time? Can Olentangy Berlin put it all together for a complete team performance? Which squads will claim the final state spots? Can Delaware Hayes recreate its McGowan magic? And which individuals will rise to shake up the regional hierarchy? The answers will unfold on the grass at Pickerington North High School.