Boys Regional Preview

After months of eager anticipation, the regionals have finally arrived! The top teams and athletes will gather at Pickerington North for an exhilarating 5k showdown, poised to deliver breakout performances and unexpected upsets. This weekend promises key storylines, including the fierce competition for the individual regional title, the relentless pursuit of Dublin Jerome by their challengers, and the final team spots up for grabs at the state championship. So, sit back and enjoy this article brimming with preview insights!

Predicted Individual Champion: Charlie Guerrera (Dublin Jerome)

Predicted Team Champions: Dublin Jerome Celtics

Predicted Team Qualifiers: Dublin Jerome

Olentangy Liberty

Westerville North

Olentangy Orange

St. Francis DeSales

The most compelling storyline at regionals in Central Ohio is always the battle for team qualification to the state meet. Over the past three seasons, we’ve witnessed stunning upsets and razor-thin finishes for the final spots. In the infamous 2021 "mud pit" race, a young Worthington Kilbourne squad shocked everyone by toppling Olentangy Orange for the final qualifying spot. Then in 2022, Dublin Jerome heartbreakingly missed out on the last qualifying spot to Pickerington North after a 6th-man tiebreaker, while Worthington Kilbourne and Dublin Scioto came just a combined nine points shy of advancing. Fast forward to 2023, where Dublin Scioto defied all expectations by taking 4th place ahead of the expected bubble teams. With Lancaster claiming the final qualifying spot, this resulted in Dublin Jerome being knocked out by a single point and Worthington Kilbourne by eight. With such a rich history of drama, this year’s race promises to be no different.

So, who are this year's contenders for states? Analyzing data from the past three years of regional races reveals a clear trend: while the performances of 4th, 5th, and sometimes even 3rd runners often determine which teams sneak into qualifying, it’s the strength of a team’s top two runners that defines their status as true contenders. Over the last three years, 13 of the 15 teams that qualified had both of their top two runners finish within the top 20. For the two teams that didn’t meet this standard, their second runners placed 23rd and 25th—just outside that range. By examining the top two runners of this year’s qualifiers, we should have a strong sense of who the real contenders are, allowing us to make our final predictions from there.

Since race results rarely align perfectly with projections, we’ll use the top 25 finishers as the threshold for assessing team contenders. Based on this approach, there are seven teams vying for five state-qualifying spots: Dublin Jerome, Olentangy Liberty, Westerville North, Olentangy Orange, St. Francis DeSales, Dublin Scioto, and New Albany. While Gahanna Lincoln, Dublin Coffman, and Thomas Worthington each have one runner projected to finish comfortably in the top 20, it’s highly unlikely any of them will field a second runner capable of cracking the top 20—or even the top 25. Marysville and Hilliard Darby are also considered top-10 teams in the region, but with neither team having an individual within the top 25, their impressive pack spread is unlikely to be enough to secure a qualifying spot.

With the contenders established, it's time to make our picks. The one team we consider a lock for state qualification is Dublin Jerome. Aside from a narrow defeat to Westerville North at the Berlin Bear Dash, Jerome has been untouchable since their breakout performance at the Celtic Clash. Using our threshold of two runners in the top 25, Jerome stands out with an impressive four runners seeded in the region’s top 25. It's hard to imagine anyone beating them at regionals, and qualifying should be a formality. Our next projected qualifier is Olentangy Liberty. Until recently, Liberty was viewed as more of a bubble team, with work to do to secure a spot. However, they silenced any doubts with a dominant performance at districts, upsetting St. Francis DeSales to claim the Section 1 title. While Liberty's top two individuals don’t quite match the elite level of other contenders, they still fall within the top 25. What makes Liberty especially dangerous is their tight pack running, which gives them a formidable edge over many opponents.

We’re also confident that Westerville North and Olentangy Orange will qualify. These teams finished just two points apart in Section 2 at districts this weekend. Like Liberty, North's second runner may not be projected in the top 20, but they’re still comfortably within the top 25. Despite a bit of inconsistency from usual "Big 3" runner Jordan Mazak, North remains a strong contender, especially with the late-season emergence of Gabe Wise. If Mazak returns to form, North could even challenge Jerome for the top spot, as they did at the Berlin Bear Dash. Meanwhile, Olentangy Orange has been hit by the loss of Sahil Khandari, their usual third runner, but they’re still in a solid position to qualify. Matthew Schroff and Bradyn Allender, both state qualifiers last year, are poised to repeat this year. Their depth is bolstered by their 3rd through 6th runners, all with personal bests between 16:17 and 16:22. With this group and a strong strategy from Coach Walters, Orange should earn their third consecutive trip to states.

That leaves us with three teams vying for one final spot, which are St. Francis DeSales, Dublin Scioto, and New Albany. Now, we should be able to eliminate one team from this group somewhat easily. Although they have been on a tear recently, led by two top 20 projected runners in Austin Benedict and Marcus Speed, they simply do not have the depth to stack up with DeSales and Scioto. Unless each of their 3rd, 4th, and 5th runners have the race of their lives, they will likely miss state qualification. However, with top end talent, they should still be poised for their best finish at regionals since 2020, where they infamously had three runners in the top 20 finishers but did not qualify to states as a team. 

The battle between DeSales and Scioto for the final state qualifying spot is expected to be tight, but we believe DeSales will ultimately prevail. The key factor here is reliability. DeSales’ top three runners—Charles Rizek, Jacob Reash, and Ashton Boyd—have been models of consistency this season. Rizek and Reash are both projected to finish within the top ten individuals, while Boyd should land in the top 30. The one concern for DeSales lies in the inexperience of their 4th and 5th runners, which was evident at districts when a subpar performance from their 5th runner led to an upset by Olentangy Liberty. Both of these runners are sophomores and lack the postseason experience Scioto brings, with all five of their top runners being upperclassmen.

On the other hand, Scioto has been in a bit of a slump this postseason. Their top runner, Mckinley Norman, a state qualifier last year, has struggled lately. Though Owen Kockentiet has stepped up to fill the gap, Norman will need to return to midseason form for Scioto to have a real shot at qualifying. A potential wild card is their usual third runner, Michael Kinzer, who had a breakout track season with a 9:20 in the 3200. Despite a stellar 15:53 at the Berlin Bear Dash, Kinzer has been relatively quiet this season. Scioto’s biggest weakness, however, is their 5th runner, whose personal best of 16:40 puts them at a disadvantage compared to other regional contenders. For Scioto to edge out DeSales, they’ll need either a bounceback performance from Kinzer or a breakout race from their 5th runner, Haruki Nakamura. Still, it’s important not to count out the Irish, especially after their surprise qualification last year.

While much of the critical race analysis is covered, there’s still an increasingly close battle brewing for the top spot at this year’s regional meet. Though Mick Temple and Matthew Schroff are in the mix, the regional title will most likely come down to either Charlie Guerrera or Tate Ruthers. Guerrera kicked off the season with a state-leading performance at the Hot Summer Bash but has been relatively quiet since, seemingly battling illness throughout the season. In contrast, Ruthers has been on a steady rise, highlighted by a 15:13 at the Berlin Bear Dash and a district championship performance of 15:17—the fastest time of the weekend in Central Ohio. However, we’re still predicting Guerrera to take the win. With the regional title on the line, we expect him to return to top form, though his victory could very well come down to a sprint finish.

With our projected team qualifiers being Dublin Jerome, Olentangy Liberty, Westerville North, Olentangy Orange, and St. Francis DeSales, several standout individuals are poised to qualify for states on their own. While we’ve already highlighted Tate Ruthers and Mick Temple, keep an eye on Jacob Bolton, fresh off his Section 2 district title, as he looks to make an impact in this race. Though many of the top individual qualifiers will come from these state-bound teams, several athletes from non-qualifying squads will battle for their spot at states. Among them are Austin Benedict, Cohen Stump, Owen Towler, Mulu Ferguson, Mckinley Norman, Justin Rona, Owen Kockentiet, Michael Kinzer, Vansh Sethi, Logan Behm, and Brock Jarrett. Each of these runners has a strong chance to qualify with a solid performance, while others outside this group will face a tougher path to advance.

As we head into the highly anticipated regional meet at Pickerington North, the stakes couldn’t be higher for teams and individuals alike. Months of preparation and hard-fought victories have led to this moment, where dreams of qualifying for the state championship will be on the line. With intense battles for the final team spots, standout individual performances, and a thrilling contest for the regional title, this weekend promises to be one for the history books. Whether it's the powerhouse teams looking to cement their place at states or the underdogs aiming for an upset, the race will be a true showcase of the best talent in Central Ohio. Buckle up, because it’s going to be an unforgettable showdown over five kilometers!